Independant+and+Conditional+Probability

Students will be able to differentiate between independent and conditional probability. Students will calculate probability for both independent and conditional events.
 * Unit goal** -


 * Students will be able to describe a subset.
 * Students will understand and use vocabulary associated with independent and conditional probability.
 * Students will use correct set notation.
 * Students will use Venn diagrams to describe relationships (unions, intercepts, compliments).
 * Students will calculate the probability for events using various methods.
 * Students will determine whether events A and B are independent or conditional.
 * Students will model real-life data using frequency tables.
 * Students will calculate probability of both independent and conditional events.

__Content Standards__ S.CP.1: Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, orcomplements of other events ("or", "and", "not"). S.CP.2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. S.CP.3: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. S.CP.4: Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities.


 * Learning Cycle 1:**


 * Goal** is for student to differentiate between independant and conditional probability AND calculate both.
 * 1) Students explore 2 events that are independant of each other.
 * 2) Given the probability of 2 independant events, students wll calculate the probability of both happening together.
 * 3) Students explore 2 events that are conditional on the other happening.
 * 4) Given the probability of 2 conditional events, students wll calculate the probability of both happening.


 * Develop Understanding Task**


 * Task #1: @M&M vs Skittles**

Surfaces ideas as:
 * a review of vocabulary and terminology use when discussing independent and conditional probability.
 * use data and probability to make predictions and determine choices.


 * Materials needed:** "M and M" task sheet, calculators, pen or pencil, a bag of M&Ms, a bag of Skittles, and a document camera to display student work.


 * Launch:**


 * Explore:**


 * Discuss:**


 * Solidify Understanding/Develop Understanding Task**


 * Task #2:** M&M vs Skittles Classroom